Saturday, May 23, 2009

U-mah ho'ilu hakhamim be-taqqanatam?

The new Obama administration seems to be keen on renewing the efforts to achieve an agreed settlement of the conflict in the Land of Israel. It's nice that someone is still optimistic that peace could be achieved, and indeed we can only hope that there is any possibility to end the conflict. I am very pessimistic, and I have an old story that can clarify my source of pessimism:

Once upon a time, a poor wretched man was given a choice of punishments to be meted out to him. He could eat rotting fish, OR he could be whipped, OR he could be chased out of town. It seemed to him that being chased out of town was "out of the question", so he decided to eat the rotting fish. As soon as he bit into the fish, he was absolutely overwhelmed by the horrible taste. He changed his mind in a moment, and asked to be whipped instead. But the pain of the whipping was just torture. It was simply unbearable. "I agree to being chased out of town..." So, in the end, he ate some rotting fish, AND he received some blows of the whip AND he was chased out of town.

There is a possibility that this little story will be translated into a very tragic political-military reality:

Israel will face three possible scenarios: She could negotiate with the Palestinians, knowing that the talks might end unsuccessfully (and Israel will probably be held accountable for this failure, the price of her being the stronger party). OR another scenario could be that the Palestinians shall renew the terrible suicide bombings. OR, of course, the third possibility could be a continuation of the present status quo. Well, everyone seems to think that the status quo is "out of the question". So, Israel will negotiate, obviously, particularly under the pressure of the Obama administration. The talks will indeed end up in failure, but the Islamic Jihad and/or the Hamas will be eager to renew the suicide bombings to be certain that there will be no atmosphere of peace-making. In the end, Israel will find the military solution to bring the new wave of suicide bombings to its end, and to re-establish the former status quo. So, we will have failed negotiations, AND we probably will have to go through another round of suicide bombings, AND we will end up continuing the present status quo. U-mah ho'ilu hakhamim be-taqqanatam?